Earlier this summer, Campbell & Company presented a “Looking Ahead” section in its annual Giving USA presentation—a forward-focused conversation about the Giving USA report and the economic indicators most likely to shape fundraising in the coming months. The response was overwhelmingly positive, with many agreeing how crucial it is to keep a close watch on this year’s trends.
Now more than ever, understanding the economic forces that shape giving allows us to respond with empathy, resilience, and thoughtful strategy. By staying informed about the economic landscape, we position ourselves to better serve our missions and the people who depend on us.
This post revisits four key indicators and provides an update, with definitions to help fundraisers of all backgrounds understand why these metrics matter. Whether you’re a seasoned strategist or just starting out, these indicators offer a window into donor behavior, giving potential, and the broader forces influencing philanthropy.
Inflation[1]
The latest Consumer Price Index figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released September 12th, show that inflation edged up another 0.2% since July, for a total of 0.4% since our Giving USA presentation on June 25th. While the pace of inflation has eased compared to its recent peak, overall prices remain more than 26% higher than they were before the pandemic.
For donors—especially those making modest gifts—these elevated costs can make charitable giving feel more challenging. At the same time, nonprofits continue to grapple with rising expenses to provide essential services. This dual squeeze heightens fundraising complexity and underscores the need for empathy, adaptability, and inventive approaches to donor engagement.
The Federal Reserve has officially lowered interest rates by 25 basis points[2], signaling a strategic shift aimed at curbing inflation while sustaining economic momentum. With the decision now public, attention turns to how markets, businesses, and consumers will respond in the coming weeks.
Fundraisers should pay close attention to these developments, as interest rate changes can ripple through the economy, affecting both household budgets and donor confidence. We’ll be watching closely to see how the Fed’s actions influence inflation trends in the months ahead, and what that could mean for philanthropy.
S&P 500 Index[3]
Since June, the S&P 500 has continued its strong upward trajectory, reaching new record highs over the summer and maintaining robust momentum into October. This growth has been driven by resilient corporate earnings, optimism around artificial intelligence and technology stocks, as well as signals from the Federal Reserve that rate hikes may soon pause as inflation cools. However, volatility remains as investors weigh the potential for slower economic growth and ongoing global uncertainties.
Looking ahead, we will be closely monitoring shifts in market sentiment, especially around Federal Reserve policy updates, inflation data, and any signs of a broader economic slowdown. Sustained market strength typically encourages higher-value charitable gifts, particularly those tied to appreciated assets like stock. On the other hand, abrupt market corrections can make donors more cautious, especially with major and planned gifts.
For fundraisers, this means now is an opportune time to engage donors in conversations about gifts of stock while the market is strong, but also to prepare flexible strategies should volatility return. By staying informed about market trends and being proactive in stewardship, organizations can position themselves to weather market changes and maximize fundraising potential in both strong and uncertain times.
Disposable Personal Income (DPI)[4]
According to the latest figures from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, released September 26th, real DPI climbed another 0.1% in August 2025, continuing its positive momentum and now standing 3.5% higher than at the start of the year. This steady growth means more households may be feeling more financially secure, which is a promising indicator for the philanthropic sector as we gear up for the fall fundraising season. The next report, set to release on October 31st, will reveal whether this positive trend continues—offering a more up-to-date view of household financial health heading into year-end.
What’s especially encouraging is that increases in disposable income are particularly good for annual and sustaining donors. These supporters form the backbone of healthy baseline fundraising and ongoing engagement. Nonprofits may see renewed interest in broad-based campaigns and grassroots support, as people are more open to giving when their budgets allow. However, ongoing inflation and cost pressures remain relevant, so fundraisers should continually monitor shifts in disposable income and adapt their strategies as needed.
Looking ahead, we’ll be closely monitoring the next DPI report, set for release on October 31, 2025. Sustained increases in DPI can fuel optimism for a robust year-end giving cycle, particularly from annual and sustaining donors, but a dip could make that more challenging, requiring renewed stewardship and creative engagement.
Consumer Sentiment[5]
Since June 2025, consumer sentiment has steadily declined, falling from 61.7 in June to 53.6 in October, a -24% change year-over-year. This drop could reflect growing concerns about inflation, jobs, and trade, with nearly half of consumers reporting that high prices are hurting their standard of living. However, rising disposable personal income, as noted above, offers a counterbalance, potentially boosting optimism for donors even as sentiment wavers. For fundraisers, this signals donor caution and potential pressure on broad-based giving, but also opportunity in engaging those whose finances have improved.
As we navigate an ever-shifting economic landscape, it’s more important than ever for nonprofit leaders and fundraisers to stay agile, attentive, and informed. With the final quarter of the calendar year approaching, awareness of changing trends and a willingness to adapt are keys to success.
The nonprofit sector thrives when it actively observes, interprets, and engages in conversations around these economic signals. By sharing insights and asking questions together, we can better manage uncertainty and craft thoughtful plans for what comes next. By understanding how this data is tracked (even as that might change), interpreting data with intention, shaping strategy proactively, and nurturing donor relationships, organizations can remain resilient and amplify their impact…regardless of market fluctuations.
Definitions and Sources
- Inflation[6]: Inflation tracks how much prices for everyday goods and services increase over time. It reflects the decline in the purchasing power of money over time, meaning each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) measures inflation primarily through the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks changes in prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services.
- S&P 500[7]: The S&P 500 is a widely recognized stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States, spanning diverse sectors such as technology, finance, healthcare, and consumer goods. Managed and published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, the S&P 500 serves as a key barometer for the overall health and direction of the U.S. equity market, reflecting investor sentiment and economic trends. By aggregating market data from these leading companies, the index offers a comprehensive snapshot of stock market movements, making it an essential tool for investors, analysts, and policymakers to gauge financial stability, assess investment opportunities, and understand broader economic conditions.
- Disposable Personal Income[8]: DPI refers to the amount of money individuals have left to spend or save after taxes are deducted from their total income. It’s a key indicator of consumer purchasing power and overall financial well-being. DPI is calculated by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) using comprehensive data on wages, salaries, transfer payments, investment income, and social benefits, then subtracting personal taxes such as federal, state, and local income taxes. This methodology ensures DPI accurately reflects the funds truly available for households to manage their daily expenses, contribute to savings, or support charitable causes, making it an essential gauge for economists, policymakers, and fundraisers alike.
- Consumer Sentiment[9]: Consumer sentiment reflects how optimistic or cautious people feel about their finances and the wider economy, influencing spending, saving, and giving behaviors. It is typically measured by organizations such as the University of Michigan and The Conference Board, which conduct regular surveys asking individuals about their financial outlook and major purchases. The results are compiled into indices that provide policymakers and economists with a snapshot of public confidence and help track economic trends over time.
[1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
[2] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250917a.htm
[3] https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#overview
[4] https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/disposable-personal-income
[5] https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
[6] https://www.bls.gov/bls/inflation.htm
[7] https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#overview
[8] https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/disposable-personal-income